Key Takeaways
- Altcoins are seeing the heaviest selling in five years, with $209 billion more sold than bought on exchanges over the past 13 months.
- Retail investors have mostly exited, smart money has moved to Bitcoin, and no major institutions are buying altcoins right now.
- This prolonged one-sided selling mirrors late-stage bear-market patterns from previous cycles, signaling that buyers are largely absent.
Altcoins are under intense selling pressure, hitting levels not seen in the past five years.
Over the past year, investors have sold billions more altcoins than they’ve bought on exchanges—a stark sign of a market leaning heavily toward the bears.
Retail investors have largely exited, “smart money” has rotated into Bitcoin, and institutional interest in altcoins remains practically nonexistent.
This prolonged, one-sided selling echoes patterns from past bear markets, suggesting that for now, buyers are nowhere to be seen.
As bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the market, key metrics are signaling that the crypto winter could extend longer than many hoped.
Bitget
Bitunix
ChangeNow
Altcoin Bears Roaring: $209 Billion Sold
According to CryptoQuant , altcoin selling pressure has reached a five-year high.
Over the last 13 months, net selling on spot exchanges totals $209 billion.
At the start of January, buy and sell volumes were near zero, indicating a balanced market.
Over the past year, however, selling has dominated, reflecting heavy downward pressure.
Retail investors who jumped into altcoins during bull-market hype have mostly stepped back or sold out.
Analysts note that this capital has either moved into Bitcoin or stablecoins, with no signs of institutional accumulation.
“Retail is out. Smart money rotated. No institutional alt accumulation in sight. This is not a dip. It’s 13 months of continuous net selling on CEX spot,” one analyst noted.
While some remain hopeful for another leg of the bull run, most metrics are flashing bearish signals.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has dropped to zero—the most bearish reading in its history.
Long-term holders are selling near breakeven, and realized losses spiked when prices broke lower.
Analysts warn the altcoin bloodbath could impact Bitcoin, potentially testing $60,000 or sliding toward an “ultimate” bear bottom around $55,000, aligning with the average cost basis of largely unmoved coins.
Lessons from Previous Market Cycles
Since the Oct. 10, 2025 crash, the crypto market has been in a bearish zone—nearly 45% below BTC’s all-time high and more than 80% below most altcoins’ ATHs.
Historically, a decline of over 50% from BTC’s cycle ATH marks a bear market, a level BTC dipped below earlier this year.
Patterns from previous cycles illustrate consistent behavior:
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2016–2018: Post-2016 halving, Bitcoin peaked in 2017 at ~$18,000. The 2018 bear saw BTC drop 84%, altcoins even more, with retail panic and absent institutions. Accumulation only started after more than a year of grinding lower.
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2020–2022: The 2020 halving led to the 2021 bull run, with Bitcoin at $69,000 and altcoins surging over 1,000% in months. The 2022 bear, triggered by FTX’s collapse, saw sustained altcoin selling and rising BTC dominance. The market bottomed in November 2022 before the next leg up in 2024–2025.
The pattern is clear: altcoins lead up in bulls and lead down in bears.
Heavy selling today mirrors past late-stage bear-market behavior, driven by retail exits and institutions moving to safer assets.
Historically, these periods don’t end overnight—they shake out weak hands, and only once selling dries up does accumulation quietly begin, often after widespread investor despair.
